Civitas Snippets - January 25, 2026
Issue 47
Dear friends of Civitas Growth Partners,
It’s getting hard to tell where the data ends and the magic begins. In the past fortnight we’ve seen the U.S. shut down entire government surveys, Silicon Valley bro‑grammers popping nicotine pouches like Tic Tacs, and OpenAI preparing to turn your chatbot into an advertising column. As Arthur C. Clarke once quipped,
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”
…and lately our political and business classes seem intent on proving him right. In lighter news, we have officially started an X account; in case you have a hankering for Civitas Snippets between our normal releases, feel free to check it out.
With that, let’s get to it…
Politics and Current Events
We found Tangle’s evaluation of the Trump administration’s accomplishments in the first year interesting and refreshingly honest.
While we generally support cutting federal waste wherever it exists, this piece by Bloomberg suggests that slashing 20% of BLS staff and 15% of inflation inputs has effectively left the market flying on "vibes" alone. Navigating a $28 trillion economy while blindfolded is a bold strategy, Cotton - let's see if it pays off for our portfolios.
The administration has whiplashed from dismissing affordability as a "scam" to floating a 10% cap on credit card rates - a heavy-handed pivot to price controls that would make even a socialist blush. Unfortunately, shouting "AFFORDABILITY" in all-caps hasn't rescued underwater approval ratings, proving that voters (and markets) still prefer actual math over meme governance.
With Maduro deposed by US special forces, Venezuelans are cautiously hoping the "Trump trade" finally arrives in Caracas to replace socialist misery. It is the ultimate irony that this administration might find it easier to fix a failed state abroad than to solve the "AFFORDABILITY" crisis at home.
Who had the President of the United States / leader of the free world suing one of the most powerful global financial organizations on their 2026 bingo card? We did not - but it was just announced that DJT is suing JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon for $5B due to “de-banking”. We say this every edition, but fact is really stranger than fiction.
To the Sacramento legislators salivating over a wealth tax, we present Exhibit A: France, where the state collected a laughable 20% of projected revenue as the wealthy promptly said au revoir. Capital is mobile, and assuming otherwise is a great way to accelerate the Golden State's fiscal death spiral.
An FT columnist argues that Trump’s trade wars and threats against allies have accomplished what Beijing could not: pushing Europe and the Global South to cozy up to China. Break up with your best friend, watch them date your rival.
Institutional landlords aren’t (yet) the bogeyman. A think‑tank report finds that despite the headlines, institutional investors own only a sliver of America’s single‑family rentals and aren’t meaningfully driving up prices. Most of the “Wall Street stole my house” narrative is just that - a narrative.
We respect the relentless pursuit of alpha, but federal charges against two dozen bettors for fixing NCAA and Chinese basketball games prove the sports gambling mania has officially peaked. When your parlays rely on international felonies and bribing teenagers, it’s time to rethink your life choices.
A viral post dubbed Deloitte, a firm that pulled in $74 billion in fees last year, a “cancer metastasized across America,” lamenting how governments outsource core functions to consultants. When in doubt, hire Deloitte; when budgets run out, hire them again.
After losing out on the Nobel Peace Prize, Trump texted Norway’s prime minister to say he no longer felt obliged to “think purely of Peace” and that the world won’t be secure until America controls Greenland. Feels a lot like that kid everyone knew growing up… the one who flips the Monopoly board when he doesn’t win.
This piece by the FT details a demographic freefall that makes Japan look like a fertility festival, with Chinese births halving to under 8 million in just a decade. The CCP is discovering the hard limits of authoritarianism: you can centrally plan ghost cities, but you can't mandate a baby boom when the youth are choosing pets over partners.
Enjoy analyzing this parlay…isn’t Polymarket amazing?
NASA’s refusal to address the ISS "medical emergency" is providing unlimited fuel for the tin-foil hat brigade (aliens? space plague?), proving once again that government transparency is an oxymoron. While SpaceX has nailed the orbital logistics, the future of humanity clearly requires better telehealth than a laggy Zoom call and a bottle of aspirin.
Economy, Markets, and Business
We’ll say it until we’re blue in the face: the Fed is merely a passenger while the bond market drives the bus, evidenced by the 10-Year yield ripping to 4.27% (up from 3.7% in Sept 2024) as the market digests our massive deficit funding. The "bond vigilantes" are officially awake, and if we don't embrace fiscal responsibility soon, foreign debt holders might start exerting leverage that monetary policy simply cannot fix.
The nonprofit PJM runs the electricity market for 13 states and 67 million Americans. Now a swarm of AI data centers clustered in Virginia’s “Data Center Alley” are guzzling so much juice that PJM is warning of a supply crunch. Your next chat with an LLM might trip your circuit breaker.
Apple has officially tapped Google’s Gemini to power Siri, tacitly admitting that their in-house AI efforts were lagging behind the competition. It’s a pragmatic move from Cupertino, proving that if you can't build a world-class LLM, you simply rent one from the company that just surpassed your market cap.
Speaking of Google, parent company Alphabet has surged to a $4 trillion valuation, joining Nvidia as the only "Mag 7" stock to beat the S&P 500 in 2025. Wall Street has crowned Gemini the new "GOAT" not just for its tech, but because Google spends the lowest percentage of revenue on capex - proving that in this economy, efficiency is the ultimate killer app.
So, this SpaceX IPO looks like it’s becoming a real thing - with the FT reporting that they have chosen four investment banks (Bank of America, Goldman, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley). It looks like the public markets will be embarking on the final frontier…
Private‑equity investors sold a record $110 billion worth of stakes in old funds last year as exits dried up. Limited partners are Marie Kondo–ing their portfolios, cashing in where they can while buyout firms struggle to sell companies.
OpenAI has begun testing ads in ChatGPT, a tacit admission that burning billions on compute isn't a sustainable business model forever. With Google and Anthropic (especially Claude Code) aggressively taking market share, 2026 will determine if OpenAI is a commercially viable giant or just the most expensive R&D lab in history.
The Labor Department reported that new unemployment claims fell to 198,000 last week, down from 207,000, while continuing claims slipped to 1.88 million. Good news, but markets are still braced for delayed inflation data and a hawkish Fed.
After calls for companies to pay a premium on electricity for data centers, one analyst noted that if Microsoft paid a 50% premium on electricity for its 400‑plus data centers to subsidize neighbors’ bills, it would barely dent the company’s operating income. Should tech giants pick up the tab for the grid strain their AI toys create, or will your lights dim so ChatGPT can recommend recipes?
We often roll our eyes at the term "Creator Economy" - it usually sounds like a euphemism for unemployment - but it is hard to ignore the facts in this post from Mr. Beast. YouTube has paid creators over $100 billion in the last four years. That figure eclipses the payouts of all other social media platforms combined, proving that while TikTok offers dopamine hits (and CCP surveillance), Google is the only one actually cutting checks that fund mortgages - capitalism at its finest.
Society and Culture
A recent publication in Nature suggests land sources release 600 quadrillion microplastic particles annually - 20 times the ocean's output - effectively coating the planet in invisible litter. At this scale, we are forced to adopt a Dr. Strangelove mindset: how we learned to stop worrying and love the polymer fog.
Bible sales have surged to record highs in the U.S. and U.K., continuing a trend since 2021. In uncertain times, many are turning to scripture - physical copies, not apps.
Scientists warn that frequent nose‑picking can introduce bacteria that potentially travel to the brain and may increase Alzheimer’s risk. It’s a wonder that toddlers don’t all have early onset dementia.
In the spirit of toddlers, it’s good to know that the ensuing fleet of robot armies will have to contend with the same behavioral challenges during training as their subservient humanoids.
A new YouGov poll confirms that Americans overwhelmingly prize Nursing, Engineering, and CS degrees, while Liberal Arts and Philosophy are viewed as essentially expensive hobbies. We’ve always believed in educational ROI, so unless the nation's future philosophers plan to monetize existential dread, we strongly suggest they minor in Accounting.
Silicon Valley has found a new "biohack" for productivity, with companies like Palantir reportedly installing free nicotine pouch vending machines to sharpen engineer focus. While we've long fueled our own late nights with caffeine, supplying addictive stimulants to squeeze out more code feels like a mildly dystopian evolution of the standard office snack bar.
Census data show the median U.S. marriage lasts about 20 years, but that varies widely. Couples in the older Northeast stay hitched longer than those in youthful Sun Belt states. Everything’s bigger in Texas except matrimony.
Deaths from accidental falls surpassed fatalities from car crashes in 2023, with 47,026 Americans dying from falls versus 44,762 in auto accidents. Blame an aging population… and maybe scrolling while walking.
Start‑ups are building gadgets to translate barks and monitor canine emotions. Investors are betting big that Lassie’s data is the next big thing - which seems ruff (sorry, dad joke was necessary).
As alcohol consumption faces a secular decline, consumers are aggressively rotating into a "California Sober" portfolio of mocktails and cannabis drinks. It seems the market has finally calculated the negative ROI of a hangover - proving we still want the buzz, just without the productivity tax.
U.S. vinyl sales climbed for the 19th consecutive year, proving that Taylor Swift is essentially a sovereign economic entity capable of reviving dead formats single-handedly.
Trendy hotels are eliminating proper bathroom doors in favor of frosted glass and open concepts. Guests are revolting; some things are best left unseen.
The University of Texas just secured a national title in athletic spending, blowing through a staggering $376 million in FY2025. While we love the gridiron, we suspect China is prioritizing quantum computing over NIL deals - a capital allocation strategy that forces us to ask if this is truly the highest and best use of our research institutions.
One Final Thing
The results from our geopolitical crystal ball are in: 42% of you are betting on a US-influenced regime change in Cuba, while 19% see a Greenland acquisition in the cards, and 31% believe that nothing major will happen on the territorial acquisition front. Notably, 0% of you believe we will annex Canada - so our friends in the Great White North can rest easy; your maple syrup reserves are safe from American liberation for now.
We also have to acknowledge the absolute masterclass from Indiana’s Curt Cignetti (Google him - he wins). While 59% of you picked the SEC to dominate 2025, the Big Ten’s resurgence forces us to ask: Is the balance of power permanently shifting North, or were the last three years just a glitch in the SEC matrix?
This week’s question: Should hyperscalers and data center operators be subject to specific surcharges to directly fund local grid upgrades?
We’re Looking for Exceptional, Overlooked Businesses
At Civitas Growth Partners, we invest our own capital in founder-led B2B businesses with $1M to $4M in recurring revenue, strong retention, and best-in-class products, but that fall outside the traditional VC or PE mold. These businesses are often bootstrapped, breakeven, and haven’t yet invested meaningfully in sales and marketing. Growth is steady (0 - 25% annually), and the product quietly leads its niche.
This is a category of company that is often overlooked, but we see tremendous opportunity. Our model is to help these businesses scale to $10M or more in revenue by providing flexible capital (minority or control), supporting both organic and M&A growth, and deploying an operational playbook honed through years of work with capital-efficient founders. Because we invest our own capital - not institutional LP funds - we bring no artificial timelines or exit pressure. That gives founders room to build enduring value. Our partners have achieved more than 6x equity outcomes without compromising what makes their companies special.
We’re actively looking for our next great partner. If you know a founder or operator building something exceptional - and overlooked - we’d be grateful for an introduction. We value the relationships that lead us to great companies and are always happy to have a conversation about referral arrangements. Reach out anytime at team@civitasgrowth.com.
Cheers,
The Civitas Team