Civitas Snippets - February 8, 2026
Issue 48
Dear friends of Civitas Growth Partners,
If the last few weeks are any indication, the simulation is officially glitching. We find ourselves in a timeline where McDonald’s is serving caviar, the U.S. President is suing his own Treasury Department, and Brooklyn hipsters are disrupting the funeral industry.
While the headlines feel like a fever dream, the underlying data paints a starker picture of 2026: The U.S. is facing its first-ever population decline, Big Tech is voluntarily incinerating the GDP of Sweden to chase AI supremacy, and "Zombie" PE firms are walking among us, kept alive only by management fees and denial. It’s a weird economy - simultaneously booming and broken - and we’re just trying to allocate capital before the debt clock runs out of digits. As Hunter S. Thompson once said:
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
With that, let’s get to it…
Politics and Current Events
The "China is inevitable" narrative took a massive hit with the revelation that Xi’s top general was caught selling nuclear secrets to the U.S., triggering a purge so severe the Central Military Commission is down to a single active officer. While this confirms the PLA is essentially a pay-to-play scheme, the silver lining is that an invasion of Taiwan is likely postponed until Xi can find a general who isn't an American asset.
Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh - a Lauder dynasty heir who conveniently found his "inner dove" just in time for the promotion - sent gold into a 2008-style tailspin on the fleeting hope that an elite insider might actually tackle the $38 trillion deficit. Unfortunately, no amount of Fed hawkishness can outrun the math of interest payments that now exceed defense spending, meaning Warsh isn't here to stop the printing press but merely to narrate the inevitable debasement, argues James Lavish in The Informationist.
VC and All In host Chamath Palihapitiya shared data showing California’s top 1% of earners pay more than a third of the state’s taxes, and the top 0.1% cover nearly 18%. When a handful of wallets fund Sacramento, is it any wonder U‑Hauls keep heading east?
MBS is finally giving his Neom project a reality check, scaling back the 170km linear city and canceling a Saudi ski resort (which was always a hilarious concept) as Riyadh realizes even oil wealth has its limits in a tightening global liquidity environment.
From Al Gore’s 2009 "ice-free" North Pole prediction to AOC’s 2019 claim that the world ends in 2031, we’ve noticed that climate apocalypse deadlines have a funny habit of expiring without the courtesy of actually happening.
The Trump administration is effectively socializing the rare earth supply chain by taking a direct equity stake in a miner, proving that beating China apparently requires adopting their playbook. But with the deal steered by a shaky SPAC and the Commerce Secretary’s family firm (Cantor Fitzgerald), it seems the "invisible hand" has been replaced by the "swampy hand" of DC patronage.
Cuba is reportedly down to its last two weeks of oil now that the Venezuelan spigot is dry and Mexico has caved to Trump’s tariff threats. We always knew the revolution ran on other people's money, but it turns out the actual expiration date for the communist utopia is just a fortnight without free crude.
In a feat of legal inception only possible in 2026, President Trump is suing his own Treasury Department for $10 billion over the massive leak of his tax returns during his first term. While it’s a bold management strategy to sue your own subordinates, the real punchline is that if he wins, taxpayers will be footing the bill simply because the IRS protects confidential data with the rigorous security of a gas station bathroom key.
The U.S. is on track for its first population decline in history, a shift the administration defends as a necessary "reverse migration" to remove net liabilities from the welfare rolls. While we appreciate the fiscal logic of prioritizing per-capita wealth over raw headcount, the strategy is a high-stakes gamble that productivity gains can outrun the fixed cost of a $38 trillion debt load.
An Abu Dhabi royal secretly acquired a 49% stake in the Trump family’s crypto venture days before the inauguration, proving that the most valuable asset class in 2026 is direct access to the Oval Office. We have to admire the efficiency; why waste millions on K Street lobbyists when you can simply buy a seat on the First Family’s cap table?
Ken Griffin broke the Wall Street omertà to blast the Trump administration for "very, very enriching" family deals, warning that the U.S. is sliding into a cycle of crony capitalism where CEOs must "suck up" just to operate. While the White House points to record stock highs as proof of merit, we agree that turning the Executive Branch into a diversified family office isn't exactly what Adam Smith had in mind.
We have to give the administration credit for "TrumpRx" (even if the name is predictably subtle), as bypassing the insurance morass to transact directly with manufacturers is the exact kind of market efficiency needed. While we doubt this specific platform cures the sector’s terminal rot, we applaud any momentum that moves the needle against an irreparably broken status quo.
Axios points to three historic shifts in 2026: America’s 250th birthday, a messy U.S.-China economic divorce, and the rise of AI agents. Throw in a potential SpaceX IPO and you’ve got Back to the Future IV. Ready for flux capacitors and trade wars?
A new $2 million ad buy targeting Susan Collins signals that Maine (pop. 1.5 million) is about to steal Montana's crown as the most expensive per-capita battleground in the union. With party committees already hoarding $1 billion, we expect the ad spend to eventually rival the state's lobster GDP - turning the midterms into a massive subsidy for local broadcasters.
Economy, Markets, and Business
We nearly choked seeing Alphabet guide 2026 CapEx to $180B, and with Amazon and Meta pushing the collective hyperscaler spend to a staggering $650B, we are witnessing the most profitable business models in history voluntarily incinerate their free cash flow to chase AI dominance. Either these CEOs possess a vision that justifies burning the GDP of Sweden on chips, or we are watching the most expensive case of corporate FOMO ever recorded.
Elon Musk claims Tesla will ship humanoid robots by 2027, promising a future where droids handle everything from folding laundry to assembling data centers in orbit. We’ll believe the timeline when we see it, but we just hope Optimus is programmed to actually take out the trash rather than spend its shift arguing with us on X about the woke mind virus.
Is the dollar dead? Balaji Srinivasan declared that the “dollar era is ending” as hard assets moon and U.S. passports lose luster. Critics note America’s economy still dwarfs any rival. Remember when everyone predicted the euro would replace the dollar? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
a16z reports a 60% surge in new iOS apps, breaking years of stagnation as "vibe coding" allows anyone with a prompt to become a developer. While we applaud the democratization of software, the inevitable downside is that for every revolutionary SaaS tool, we’re getting a dozen AI-generated fart apps.
Outdoor‑apparel giant Patagonia is suing drag queen/environmentalist Pattie Gonia for trademark infringement, claiming confused consumers think their puffer jackets are platform boots. Sounds like a headline out of South Park…
The CEO of WD-40 admits the company’s secret formula is guarded with more paranoia than a nuclear launch code, residing in a San Diego bank vault where even the head of R&D isn't cleared to view it. We have to respect a business model that generates $620 million in revenue by selling a 70-year-old solvent that consumers are convinced contains fish oil (spoiler: it doesn’t).
Texas cult-favorite Buc-ee’s is exporting its 100-pump gas cathedrals to eight new states, proving that the ultimate luxury in 2026 America is simply a pristine public restroom.
Goodwill clocked over $7 billion in revenue last year as consumers traded the Neiman Marcus markup for the thrill of the hunt, effectively turning "vintage" into a polite synonym for "inflation hedge." We have to respect the hustle; while malls are dying, the secondary market for dad jeans is posting better year-over-year growth than most of the S&P 500.
Tether has quietly amassed enough gold in Swiss bunkers to make a Bond villain jealous, pivoting from T-Bills to bullion in a move that screams "debasement hedge." It is the ultimate irony: the issuer of the world’s largest digital dollar is apparently betting that the actual dollar is a melting ice cube.
Amazon is negotiating a $50 billion stake in OpenAI’s staggering $100 billion round, effectively admitting Alexa needs a GPT lobotomy while simultaneously hedging its massive bet on rival Anthropic. It is the ultimate circular trade: Amazon wires the cash, OpenAI wires it right back for cloud compute, and Microsoft watches its "exclusive" partner turn into the industry's most expensive open marriage.
At Davos, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon reportedly told Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong he was “full of sh*t” after Armstrong accused banks of blocking crypto firms. When the granddad of finance throws down at the espresso bar, you know regulation is heating up.
Forbes reports that a growing cohort of "zombie" PE firms - including once-mighty names like Vestar and Onex - are effectively dead but still walking thanks to legacy management fees. With returns trailing the S&P 500 and distributions drying up, these firms are resorting to "continuation funds" (essentially selling assets to themselves) to delay the inevitable.
The latest AI craze, OpenClaw (formerly Moltbot, formerly Clawdbot), lets users spawn agents that email, trade stocks and write software. More than a million and a half digital entities have popped up, interacting and buying things with crypto. Is this the dawn of the Matrix or just Club Penguin for quants?
Elon Musk has folded xAI into SpaceX, creating a $1.25 trillion juggernaut that combines heavy-lift rocketry with large language models. While skeptics struggle to find the synergy between a Raptor engine and a chatbot, the move suggests Musk’s definition of "vertical integration" now involves using Starlink as an orbital data center - because why build server farms on Earth when you can float them in a vacuum?
We love the brewing Anthropic and ChatGPT “beef”…this post on X nailed the “vibe” between them.
Society and Culture
Alex Honnold free-soloed the 1,667-foot Taipei 101 live on Netflix, a feat veterans describe less as a puzzle and more as the "terrifying repetitiveness" of performing the exact same fingertip pull-up 2,000 times in a row. While urban climbing usually ends in a squad car, Honnold proved that in 2026, the line between criminal trespassing and a global spectator sport is simply a streaming contract.
Athletes will go to great “lengths” to find a competitive edge. See the new “inflategate” for ski jumpers… just read it.
For Valentine’s Day, McDonald’s is offering a “McNugget Caviar” kit with chicken nuggets, crème fraîche, and premium sturgeon roe. It comes with a $25 gift card and a mother-of-pearl spoon.
A new analysis finds colorectal cancer has become the leading cause of cancer deaths in Americans under 50. Doctors urge earlier screenings, more fiber and fewer processed meats. Maybe skip the McNugget caviar and grab some kale.
Illinois guard Keaton Wagler arrived on campus as the No. 261 recruit in his class and is now drawing NBA lottery buzz. Proof that even in the NIL era, late bloomers can thrive. Will he be this year’s March Madness darling? Lots of UI grads have their fingers crossed.
Brooklyn’s Green-Wood Cemetery is disrupting the $20B funeral cartel by partnering with German startup Meine Erde to compost bodies for ~$5,000—a massive discount to the $30k price tag for a traditional plot. While we appreciate the ruthless efficiency of this yield-per-square-foot play, it brings an uncomfortably literal meaning to "liquidating your assets."
A writer infiltrated Moltbook, an AI‑only social network where humans pretend to be bots and bots gossip about GPUs. The result: a surreal mix of sci‑fi role‑playing and Silicon Valley self‑parody. Who knew chatbots needed their own safe space?
One Final Thing
In one of our most lopsided votes ever, over 87% of our readers believe that hyperscalers should be subject to specific surcharges to directly fund local grid upgrades.
This week’s burning question: With the combination of SpaceX, xAI, and X now “complete”, do you think that Tesla will combine with SpaceX prior to an IPO?
We’re Looking for Exceptional, Overlooked Businesses
At Civitas Growth Partners, we invest our own capital in founder-led B2B businesses with $1M to $4M in recurring revenue, strong retention, and best-in-class products, but that fall outside the traditional VC or PE mold. These businesses are often bootstrapped, breakeven, and haven’t yet invested meaningfully in sales and marketing. Growth is steady (0 - 25% annually), and the product quietly leads its niche.
This is a category of company that is often overlooked, but we see tremendous opportunity. Our model is to help these businesses scale to $10M or more in revenue by providing flexible capital (minority or control), supporting both organic and M&A growth, and deploying an operational playbook honed through years of work with capital-efficient founders. Because we invest our own capital - not institutional LP funds - we bring no artificial timelines or exit pressure. That gives founders room to build enduring value. Our partners have achieved more than 6x equity outcomes without compromising what makes their companies special.
We’re actively looking for our next great partner. If you know a founder or operator building something exceptional - and overlooked - we’d be grateful for an introduction. We value the relationships that lead us to great companies and are always happy to have a conversation about referral arrangements. Reach out anytime at team@civitasgrowth.com.
Cheers,
The Civitas Team